I am strongly convinced that my prediction is valid: This book is likely to cause a revolution in market research! Unfortunately, I have to admit that this prediction is not quite accurate as it leaves room for interpretation. What does a revolution in market research mean? How likely is “likely to cause”: 40%, 60% or even 80%? And what if the revolution fails to happen, was my prediction valid or not? To be on the safe side, I never claimed that the revolution was certain.
It is certainly flattering for me, if readers of this blog will find my prediction plausible. However, reading the crystal ball would have been as reliable. If we really want to predict future events accurately, we have to apply the basic principles of science: use precise language, apply statistics and repeat our measurements to calibrate the methodology. Like many “expert” opinions, my prediction was not living up to these standards.
These are only some of the insights, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner are offering in their book “Superforecasting. The art and science of prediction”: Just because not everything is predictable, doesn’t mean everything is unpredictable. And science helps us to predict future events as accurately as possible. As petty and theoretical as this may sound at first, the subject is presented in a comprehensible and entertaining way, peppered with a lot of good examples.
So what about my prediction? There are strong reasons why market researchers are particularly qualified to predict the future. With their scientific doubt and rigor, they are sensitive to biases in our everyday judgments. With existing tools like tracking studies, they deal with time series and know how to compile early-warning indicators. And they serve clients who like to brace themselves for an uncertain future.
This book is highly recommended for every researcher, who likes to get an even deeper understanding of forecasting and predicting the future or who has to deal with time series on a regular basis.
Publisher: Crown 2015
Hardcover: 340 pages
List Price: 28.00 USD